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Brokerage firm InCred Equities has retained its high-conviction 'ADD' rating on TCPL Packaging shares, with a revised target price of ₹5,270, implying an upside potential of nearly 18% from the stock's latest closing price of ₹4,471 on November 9. The brokerage's positive outlook comes on the back of improving core business momentum, strong September-quarter performance and the company's planned entry into the lithium-ion battery separator film business.
In its latest research report, InCred Equities said TCPL Packaging's growth momentum has improved across its paperboard and flexible packaging segments, supported by healthy customer demand, better sales mix and price hikes. The brokerage also sees the company's new battery separator film venture as a potential long-term growth driver, with opportunities arising from India's expanding electric vehicle and energy storage ecosystem.
TCPL Packaging reported a strong performance for the September quarter of FY27, with consolidated sales growing 21.8% year-on-year and 13.8% sequentially to ₹560 crore. The revenue figure was 8% higher than InCred Equities' estimates. Revenue growth for the first half of FY27 stood at 19.1%.
According to InCred Equities, this marked a significant acceleration from the 16.1% growth recorded in the June quarter and the subdued performance during Q2 and Q3 FY26, when exports were affected by geopolitical tensions.
The brokerage attributed the improvement to stable domestic FMCG demand, a recovery in exports on a lower base, better sales mix and price hikes that supported realisations. Management also highlighted healthy demand across both paperboard (folding cartons) and flexible packaging businesses.
Meanwhile, the company's consolidated EBITDA stood at ₹100.1 crore in Q2 FY27, with an EBITDA margin of 17.7%. Net profit increased 58% year-on-year to ₹45.3 crore, while cash profit rose 44% to ₹84.9 crore.
Another key growth driver highlighted by InCred Equities is TCPL Packaging's entry into the lithium-ion battery separator film business through its wholly owned subsidiary, TCPL Energy Materials, incorporated on September 24, 2026.
The company plans to invest ₹125 crore over the next 18 months to establish an initial manufacturing capacity of 70 million square metres annually. This capacity is sufficient to support approximately 6-8 GWh of battery cell production, with commercial production targeted for Q4 FY28.
In the first phase, the company will focus on coating and converting base films sourced from third parties. Subsequently, it plans to integrate backwards into wet-process base film manufacturing.
Over the next five to seven years, management aims to scale up capacity to approximately 500 million square metres annually, sufficient to cater to around 50 GWh of battery cell manufacturing in India.
InCred Equities sees this as a strong import-substitution opportunity, with TCPL Packaging potentially benefiting from a first-mover advantage in the domestic market.
TCPL Packaging shares have delivered strong returns over the past year, supported by improving business performance and investor interest in the company's growth opportunities.
As of November 9, TCPL Packaging shares closed at ₹4,471 apiece, gaining 4.9% over the past week and 4.59% over the last month and 60% in six months. The stock has advanced 34.44% over one year and 111.86% over three years.
Its five-year returns stand at nearly 701%, highlighting the stock's substantial wealth creation over the longer term.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
Vaamanaa covers business and stock market news. Started in 2020, she has been producing news on digital platforms for over 4.5 years now. She writes on markets, commodities, IPOs, and industry. She has worked for news channels like Jagran New Media and Business Insider India. You can reach out to her at vaamanaa.sethi@htdigital.in.
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