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Gold vs silver vs copper vs platinum: Last Samvat saw significant volatility in the precious metals segment, with precious metals emerging as key outperformers in the commodities market.
Gold, silver and platinum prices are likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, US dollar movement, and interest rate expectations. Base metal copper is likely to be supported by structural demand growth and constraint supply.
As Samvat 2083 begins, let’s understand the outlook for gold, silver, platinum, and copper and understand which metal could outperform this time.
Out of the four metals, silver has the strongest outlook for Samvat 2083, because of its steep correction over the past few months. “Silver has the most room to run because it has fallen the furthest. At about $53/oz it is roughly 56% below its January peak of $121.67.
Gold is about 26% off its high, and copper less than 10%. The gold/silver ratio has moved from about 50 in January to about 77, which suggests silver has already priced in much of the bad news,” explained Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn.
However, the metal is not for the faint hearted, because of sharp volatility in its prices.
“The risk is volatility: silver fell 20% in a single session in January. A December Fed hike, which markets price at roughly two-in-three odds, could push it lower before it recovers. Silver is a coiled spring, but springs snap both ways, so size it so you can survive a 20% day,” added Garg.
Out of all the metals, platinum outlook remains weakest, as the metal rates may move on headlines, according to Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn.
At the current levels, silver looks most attractively valued, noted Garg, highlighting that the precious metal was nearly 25% below its 200-day average in late October. The expert added that copper looked overheated as it is only 7% lower than its September record high levels.
Gold prices are likely to remain volatile during the period as restrictive monetary policy, fluctuating yields, currencies and shifting global liquidity could impact the precious metal prices, according to Navneet Damani, according to Navneet Damani, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Silver’s outlook remains closely linked to global manufacturing activity, monetary conditions and evolving industrial demand. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence-led structural demand growth and increasingly constrained mine supply are likely to support copper prices.
While Gaurav Garg remained bullish on silver for Samvat 2083, he favoured gold as his top choice for investors who are looking to increase their exposure in commodities.
“Gold holds up best when things go wrong. Central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3, up 42% year on year, and global gold ETF holdings are at a record 4,256 tonnes. The price is already about 26% below its peak, and speculative positioning is moderate rather than crowded,” explained Garg.
Gold futures contract (with December expiry) was up 0.98% at ₹1,43,956 per 10 gram on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) at 7:16 pm on Monday, November 9. Silver futures contract (with December expiry) was up 1.19% at ₹1,87,308 per kilogram.
MCX copper (with November expiry) was up 0.74% at ₹1349.20 per kilogram at 7:18 pm on Monday. Platinum futures rose 1.17% to around $1,550 per ounce , as per Trading Economics on Monday.
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