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Gold price outlook: Gold prices have corrected sharply from their record highs, but the decline may be creating a fresh opportunity for investors looking to add the precious metal to their portfolios. With domestic prices hovering around ₹1.42 lakh per 10 grams, experts see scope for further gains over the coming year, although their projections differ. Axis Securities sees gold prices rising up to 25% by next Dhanteras.
Continued central bank buying, renewed exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and the possibility of easing monetary conditions could support the recovery. However, elevated interest rates, a stronger US dollar and geopolitical uncertainty remain important risks.
Axis Securities, meanwhile, believes the correction of more than 20% from gold's peak has improved the entry opportunity for long-term investors. It also highlighted the importance of central bank demand in supporting the metal's longer-term prospects.
"Annual central bank purchases have remained around 1,000 tonnes in recent years, providing structural support to gold prices. Given the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties, sustained central bank demand could continue to underpin the bullish case for gold in 2027," Axis Securities said.
Gold touched a record high of approximately $5,595 per ounce in January 2026 before undergoing a sharp correction. Domestic prices have fallen more than 20% from their peak of around ₹1.80 lakh per 10 grams, with the strong US dollar, rising bond yields and changing Federal Reserve rate expectations weighing on the metal.
The conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel pushed crude oil prices higher, intensifying inflation concerns and shifting market expectations from interest rate cuts towards possible rate hikes. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of gold, which does not generate interest income. The US Dollar Index also strengthened during the period, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.
As per experts, demand from central banks and investment funds could provide longer-term support. Religare Broking's Diwali report highlighted the recovery in central bank purchases during the first half of 2026.
"Central-bank demand witnessed a sharp sequential recovery during the first half of 2026. Following a downward revision in the World Gold Council's estimates, net central-bank purchases stood at approximately 57 tonnes in Q1, compared with 289 tonnes in Q2, taking first-half purchases to approximately 346 tonnes," the report said.
Investment demand has also shown signs of recovery. Religare noted that global gold ETFs attracted record inflows of $30.7 billion, equivalent to 211 tonnes, in the third quarter of 2026. This followed outflows in the second quarter amid a stronger dollar and changing interest rate expectations.
"Global investment demand remained mixed in H1 2026, with bar and coin demand declining from 474 tonnes in Q1 to 307 tonnes in Q2. Gold ETFs also shifted from 62 tonnes of inflows in Q1 to 45 tonnes of outflows in Q2 amid a stronger dollar and changing rate expectations," Religare said.
Religare has identified an accumulation range of ₹1.30 lakh– ₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams for gold, with a key support or risk level at ₹1.21 lakh. Its first and second targets are ₹1.50 lakh and ₹1.58 lakh, respectively.
For silver, the report has identified an accumulation zone of ₹1.50 lakh– ₹1.63 lakh per kg, with targets of ₹2.17 lakh and ₹2.55 lakh. Its key support or risk level stands at ₹1.09 lakh per kg.
The report also pointed to the recent surge in ETF investments, with gold ETF inflows reaching approximately $39 billion through September 2026.
Axis Securities expects gold to deliver returns of approximately 20–25% by next Dhanteras, with a target range of ₹1.65 lakh– ₹1.71 lakh per 10 grams. It believes investors who missed the earlier rally could consider adding gold gradually after the correction.
"Current gold prices appear attractive for investors, having corrected more than 20% from their peak. This presents long-term investors who missed the rally with a compelling opportunity to add gold in a staggered manner to their existing portfolios," Axis Securities said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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