ewsba.se
Indian Stock Market | US-Iran latest news | Sensex, Nifty prediction: US President Donald Trump has said that the US is considering a possible attack on Iran as soon as Sunday, pointing out that Washington might have to “finish the job” or could reach a deal with Tehran. The latest US-Iran news reported by Al Jazeera presents two possible scenarios for the Indian stock market and gold prices. The two scenarios may have two completely different impacts on the two assets when trading activity resumes on Monday.
According to stock market experts, in the case of a US-Iran deal, bulls are expected to outperform bears, both in the equity and commodity markets, whereas in the case of a Sunday attack on Iran, we can expect a big setback for those who are waiting for a recovery in the equities, gold and silver prices after continuous selling last week.
Decoding Donald Trump's statement and the latest US-Iran news, Avinash Gorakshkar, Founder of Avinash Mentor Research, said, “In case of a Sunday attack on Iran, there will be a big hit to the bulls' sentiment, who are waiting for a bounce back in the Indian stock market, gold and silver prices, as these assets received a heavy beating last week. Likewise, if there is any deal coming out, the bears will have to pause, and bulls are expected to come out firing all their cylinders on Monday.”
However, Gorakshkar revealed a third scenario, expecting a status quo in the US-Iran war until the results of the US Midterm election 2026 are declared. He said the Iranian response to the US President's statement is not encouraging, and the US President may not react immediately, but wait until the results of the US Midterm elections 2026 are announced on 3rd November 2026.
Decoding the impact on the Nifty 50 index, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, said, “In the case of escalation in the US-Iran war, the index may break below its current support placed at 22,200 and may try to come close to its major support of 21,800 to 21,750. On the flip side, if there is a deal taking place between the US and Iran, the 50-stock index may try to break above the current resistance band of 22,700 to 22,750.”
How would the latest US-Iran news impact the Sensex? Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking said, “The BSE Sensex finished at 73,123, and the current chart is showing a bearish tone. In case of escalation in the US-Iran war, the 30-stock index may try to come close to the 72,500 to 72,300 range, whereas in the case of a US-Iran deal, the BSE Sensex may turn the tide in bulls' favour and the 30-stock index may break above the current hurdle of 73,800.”
Decoding the impact of the latest US-Iran news on the Indian stocks, Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, said, “The escalation in the US-Iran war may have a cascading impact on the crude oil prices, which is already at an alarming $115 per barrel level. Further escalation in Middle East tensions would fuel crude oil prices, a scenario that may dent the bulls' sentiment for a possible recovery in the national economy once crude oil prices come close to their new normal range of $85 per barrel. Further escalation would impact inflation, leading to a further squeeze on liquidity through the interest rate hike. Likewise, in the case of any deal, it would mean a cooling of the crude oil prices, leading to lower inflation and dovish central banks.”
The Basav Capital Co-founder and former Deputy Vice President of HDFC Bank added that in both scenarios, rate-sensitive segments and their flagship stocks will be highly impacted and listed out these top 10 stocks to put under one's watch list:
Banking: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI.
OMCs and Gas: GAIL, IOCL, HPCL, and BPCL.
Decoding the impact of the latest US-Iran news on gold and silver rates, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “An Iran attack will be highly negative for the gold and silver rates, as they were already at the receiving end last week. A fresh escalation in the US-Iran war is expected to dent the hopes of recovery in these precious metals.”
The SEBI-registered market expert said that the silver rate today is around ₹1,96,000 per kg and in the case of further escalation in the Middle East tension, the precious white metal may try to come close to ₹1,85,000 per kg levels followed by ₹1,78,000 per kg levels. Similarly, the gold rate today is around ₹1,42,000 per 10 gm. In the case of escalation in the US-Iran war, MCX gold rate may try to touch ₹1,40,000 and ₹1,37,000 per 10 gm, depending upon the level of escalation in the US-Iran war.
However, in the case of a deal, we can expect gold rates to hit ₹1,45,000 and ₹1,48,000 per 10 gm next week, while MCX silver rates may touch ₹2,03,000 and ₹2,10,000 per kg. Gupta said that, in the status quo case, gold and silver prices are expected to remain sideways to negative.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records. <br><br> While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat. <br><br> Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities. <br><br> Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).
Catch all the Business News , Market News , Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.