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Nifty Expiry Today Prediction, 13 Oct: Will bulls or bears win? Key support and resistance levels traders must watch

www.livemint.com · October 13, 2026 · 09:38

Stock market today: Indian stock markets opened higher on Tuesday, October 13, as investors looked for opportunities to buy after the recent selloff. The recovery came after the Sensex and Nifty 50 had declined 1.5% over the past week, with short covering helping lift the benchmarks in early trade.

The Sensex climbed 298 points, or 0.4%, to an intraday high of 72,222.95, while the Nifty 50 gained 95 points, or 0.4%, to 22,458.55.

However, global cues remained on the weaker side. The dollar index hovered around 102.5, its highest level since April 2025, supported by expectations of a hawkish US Federal Reserve and demand for safe-haven assets.

Bond yields also remained elevated, with the US 10-year Treasury yield around 5.3% and the 30-year yield touching 5.70%, its highest level since 2002. Higher yields can weigh on equities by making bonds more attractive to investors and increasing borrowing costs for companies.

Oil prices added to market uncertainty. Brent crude had surged to $107 a barrel following Houthi strikes on Riyadh's airport before easing to around $105.5. Crude benchmarks subsequently edged lower as traders assessed reports of a possible ceasefire covering energy infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine. However, uncertainty persisted after the White House said the reported truce, which focused heavily on refinery targets, had not been confirmed.

Domestically, India's retail inflation accelerated to 5.5% year-on-year in September 2026, from 4.82% in August, in line with expectations. Higher food and energy prices continued to put pressure on inflation.

Asian markets opened lower, following weakness on Wall Street, where technology stocks, particularly chipmakers, came under pressure. Investors reduced their exposure to growth-oriented shares ahead of corporate earnings announcements and fresh inflation data.

The gains in Indian equities came on Nifty expiry day, a session that can see heightened volatility as traders adjust or close their index derivatives positions. Despite the early rebound, continued selling by institutional investors remained a concern for the broader market.

According to Sachin Gupta VP – Technical Research, Choice Broking, the Indian market may attempt a recovery at the opening, but sustaining higher levels could remain challenging amid external uncertainties and elevated domestic inflation.

Continued DII support may help absorb selling pressure, while traders will watch price action around key technical levels and the initial earnings reactions for clearer directional cues, he added.

However, elevated crude oil prices and Middle East tensions continue to weigh on global sentiment. With domestic retail inflation accelerating to 5.54%, investors will assess the implications for RBI policy alongside ongoing earnings announcements and institutional flows, which may influence the market’s direction," Gupta of Choice pointed out.

The Nifty 50 is at a crucial juncture, with selling pressure at higher levels keeping traders cautious and the next directional move hinging on key support and resistance levels. After failing to sustain its early gains, the index slipped towards 22,350, weakening hopes of a sustained recovery. Market experts believe the 22,180 level will be critical on the downside, while a decisive move above 22,600-22,650 could signal a potential rebound.

Pabitro Mukherjee, deputy vice president of research at Bajaj Broking, said the Nifty had formed a sizeable bearish candle resembling a Dark Cloud Cover pattern, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. The index opened on a positive note but failed to hold its gains before falling sharply during the middle of the session.

“Index has formed a sizable bearish candle which looks like a bearish Dark cloud cover, highlighting selling pressure at higher levels. Nifty started the session on a positive note but failed to sustain at higher levels and gave up its gains,” Mukherjee said.

He noted that the index was experiencing elevated volatility within a broad range of 22,180-22,650. A breakout or breakdown from this range would be necessary to establish the next directional trend.

On the downside, Mukherjee identified 22,180 as a crucial support level, coinciding with the April 2026 low and the previous week's low. A breach of this level could extend the decline towards 22,000, followed by the calendar-year 2025 low of 21,743. On the upside, the 22,600-22,650 zone remains a key hurdle. A move above this range could open the door for a recovery towards 22,800 and 23,100.

Meanwhile, Geojit also highlighted that the recovery structure had weakened significantly following the latest decline. However, the brokerage noted that the previous session's fall had paused without breaching the recent low, leaving some scope for a potential bounce.

According to Geojit, the index would need to move above 22,435 to demonstrate meaningful strength. Failure to cross this level could expose the market to further downside towards 22,070-21,900.

Furthermore, Gupta of Choice placed immediate support for the Nifty at 22,350-22,400 and resistance at 22,500-22,550, highlighting the importance of these levels for near-term trading decisions.

For traders, the key levels to monitor are 22,180 on the downside and 22,600-22,650 on the upside. Until the index breaks out of this broader range, volatility could persist, making confirmation of a directional move important before taking fresh positions.

- Immediate support: 22,350–22,400, according to Gupta.

- Crucial support: 22,180, the April 2026 low and last week's low. A break below this level could extend the decline.

- Downside targets: 22,070–21,900, as highlighted by Geojit.

- Further downside targets: 22,000, followed by the calendar year 2025 low of 21,743, if Nifty breaks below 22,180.

- Immediate resistance: 22,500–22,550, according to Gupta.

- Key resistance zone: 22,600–22,650. A sustained move above this range could signal a recovery.

- Upside targets: 22,800, followed by 23,100, if Nifty breaks above 22,650.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

Pranati Deva is a seasoned financial journalist with over a decade of experience in high-pressure newsroom environments, currently working as a Senior Sub Editor at LiveMint. Over the years, she has developed a reputation for sharp editorial judgement, a strong grasp of market dynamics, and the ability to translate complex financial developments into clear, engaging stories for a wide audience. <br><br> Her core areas of coverage include stock markets, leading listed companies, currencies, and commodities, with a particular strength in fast-paced, real-time market reporting. She is known for handling breaking market news, earnings-driven stock movements, and macroeconomic developments with speed, accuracy, and context—qualities that are essential in financial journalism. <br><br> Pranati has built a diverse and credible professional track record across some of India’s most respected news organisations, including MintGenie, CNBC-TV18, Business Standard and EconomicTimes.com. During her stints at these platforms, she produced data-driven market stories, curated and steered live blogs during volatile trading sessions, and conducted interviews with market veterans, fund managers, economists, and industry experts. Her work often combines on-ground reporting with analytical depth, helping readers make sense of daily market fluctuations and longer-term trends. An alumnus of the Symbiosis Institute of Media and Communications and Hansraj College, University of Delhi, Pranati brings a strong academic foundation to her journalism. She specialises in real-time financial reporting, with a keen focus on precision, balance, and insight, aiming to decode market movements in a way that is both informative and accessible to readers across experience levels.

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