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RBI MPC meeting: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting began on 5 October 2026 and will end on 7 October 2026. The MPC’s decision is scheduled to be announced on October 7, with investors closely tracking the RBI MPC's move on the key rates. Indian stock market investors are also expected to keep a close watch on the RBI MPC meeting outcome, as the interest rate decision will directly impact market liquidity.
Speaking on the possible outcomes that the market expects, Avinash Gorakshkar, Founder of Avinash Mentor Research, said, “The market is expecting three kinds of outcomes: first, a 25 BPS interest rate hike, second, no change in the interest rate hike and third, more than 25 BPS interest rate hike.”
Decoding the impact on the Indian stock market, if the RBI MPC meeting outcome is 25 BPS rate hike, Avinash Gorakshkar said, “The market is widely expecting a 25 BPS rate hike in this RBI MPC meeting. However, in the case of 25 BPS rate hike, the market is expected to remain unmoved as it has already discounted the 25 BPS rate hike.”
“If the RBI MPC meeting comes out with the decision to keep the interest rate unchanged, then we can expect a bull run on Dalal Street, as the market is widely estimating a 25 BPS rate cut and it has already discounted this,” said Gorakshkar.
However, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, believes the RBI MPC meeting may leave the key rates unchanged.
“After the positive fortnightly US inflation and US Non Farm Payroll Data, pressure on the US Fed to hike interest rates has eased. So, this has sparked a buzz on Dalal Street that the RBI MPC meeting may conclude with key rates unchanged. If this happens, there can be a big buying in the rate-sensitive segments: banking and financial, real estate, auto, capital goods, infrastructure, and consumer durables,” the SEBI-registered market expert said.
Due to crude oil prices remaining elevated, inflation fears have resurfaced worldwide. As India meets 85% of its crude oil demand through imports, inflation is expected to rise if crude oil doesn't return to normal levels. So, a section of the market is expecting a surprise in the RBI MPC meeting outcome, and that surprise could be an interest rate hike of more than 25 BPS.
“If there is more than a 25 BPS interest rate hike in the RBI MPC meeting, then in that case, rate-sensitive stocks falling in the above-mentioned segments may see a big selling pressure, which may weigh on the key benchmark indices Nifty 50, Sensex, and Bank Nifty,” said Avinash Gorakshkar.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records. <br><br> While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat. <br><br> Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities. <br><br> Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).
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