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During the week, Nifty traded in a volatile range between 23,116.10 and 23,592.85, reflecting sharp intraday swings. The week began positively on 21 September, with Nifty gaining 0.29% to 23,414.30 and Sensex rising 0.76% to 74,858.99, supported by bargain buying in large-cap stocks and easing crude oil prices. However, broader markets failed to participate, as midcaps and smallcaps slipped, highlighting selective recovery.
Trends remained in distress as the higher levels were used to supply on a continuous basis. With the markets not behaving as expected the trends ahead will continue to remain in a challenging mode.
ROLEXRINGS: Buy above ₹196, stop ₹187 target ₹218 (Multiday)
EMIL: Buy above ₹201, stop ₹193 target ₹223(Multiday)
MANINFRA: Buy above ₹131, stop ₹127.50 target ₹139 (Multiday)
Sectoral performance was mixed, with pharma and realty indices gaining over 1%, while metals came under pressure.
Despite the early strength, sentiment weakened midweek as global bond yields remained elevated and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted. Foreign institutional investors continued to offload equities, keeping the undertone cautious. By the end of the week, Nifty had surrendered gains, closing at 23,346.40, down 51.70 points (-0.22%) week-on-week. Sensex lost 486.80 points (-0.65%), while Bank Nifty slipped 247.85 points (-0.44%). Reuters noted this was the longest streak of weekly declines for Indian equities since 2020, underscoring the persistent bearish pressure.
This week majority of the sectors we note have seen a sharp decline seen through the week had taken a toll on the sectors overall and the selling pressure could be seen across the board. Due to some sector rotation into defensives, and optimism around housing demand and REIT valuations the Real Estate sector got some tailwind. The Pharma and FMCG also attracted some buying interest. The damage was largely done by the IT as a fall triggered by weak global tech sentiment, cautious guidance, and persistent FII outflows dragged the component stocks lower. Further, the IRDAI guidelines struck on the chords of the Banking names rather heavily that had a cascading effect on the market thus proving to be a chaotic Thrusday for the markets. The markets did try to stabilise on Friday the pessimism in the air cannot be ruled out.
On the intraday charts we can note that the zone around 23300 that had been holding the prices for a while could now act as resistance. The strong decline from that region on hourly charts indicate that this region has now become pivotal for the subsequent rise in this year. The muted job numbers and rising bond yields in US have resulted in the market fearing that a rate hike by the Fed could be advanced as early as October that could lead to further volatility.
Moving on to the daily chart we note that there has been a significantly high Put writing on Friday with an attempt to defend the lower levels . This signifies that the declines have been used as a good opportunity to go long. In the last few weeks dip buy strategy seems to be paying off and, in this situation, too we note that the lower channel of the modified Pitchfork acts as a strong support and till the levels around 21500 is not violated one can look to hold their position. Volume build up has been significant and the revival from hereon could lead the Nifty to 22300 this week. As far as monthly ranges are concerned, we had a strong decline of 1000 points in September, and the momentum we are going through one can expect more action in the coming days.
However, we are not done with the macro numbers yet and next week we are having the IIP and inflation coming out which could be under the scanner for the continuation of the trends. Positive outlook from the budget and the status quo by the RBI should be helpful in reigning these numbers. With the fiscal year end drawing to a close we could be looking at the advance tax numbers that would be reported by the corporates that could give us some clue on their quarter performance. This could lead to some stock specific triggers that we can encash.
In summary, the week of September 21–25 highlighted the tug-of-war between bargain buying and persistent global headwinds. While frontline indices attempted recovery early in the week, sustained FII selling and sectoral weakness capped gains. With Nifty stuck in a 23,100–23,600 band and Bank Nifty struggling below 57,000, the outlook remains cautious. Traders should watch crude oil trends, FII flows, and global bond yields as key triggers, while resistance near 23,600 and support around 23,100 will define near-term market direction.
Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.
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Raja Venkatraman is the co-founder of NeoTrader, where he heads the training division. He conducts both offline and live market workshops, seminars, and webinars. He has been working under the guidance of Dr C K Narayan, his mentor and founder of Growth Avenues, for more than 20 years. He is an active trader in multiple asset classes, and actively shares his views on YouTube, blogs at NeoTrader, and on reputed news channels and websites. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.
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